The headline number is there. It is stamped Provisional, and beside it is the reason and what would settle it. Not a warning banner — a specific, closeable gap.
Worked example · computed live · published rules
We think we’re fine. Are we?
Watch the model reach an answer for the Hallorans, and then decline to stand behind it.
What the report will stand behind
- Position · Provisional
- Capacity · Provisional
- Timing · Provisional
- Claiming · Unavailable
- Uncertainty · Unavailable
- Survivor · Unavailable
The Hallorans came in fairly confident, and the arithmetic agrees with them: the money lasts. Nothing on this card is a warning. Every one of the six is marked this way because something was left unanswered, not because a number came out badly.
Half withheld
Being told you are fine is not the same as being fine, and the gap between the two is filled with things nobody checked. Most of what is missing here is not expertise and not money. It is two Social Security statements, a date against their balances, and a straight answer on whether either of them has a pension — paperwork already in their house. Any other calculator would have taken the same half-answers and handed back a number. This one lists what it does not have, so the confidence they end up with is one they can stand on.
The Hallorans
61 and 59, Raleigh, North Carolina
The Hallorans are 61 and 59, in Raleigh, with about $410,000. They came in reasonably confident and answered roughly half of what we asked.
What they have
- Taxable
- $95,000
- Tax-deferred
- $310,000
- Tax Advantage (Roth)
- $30,000
- Social Security at 67
- $2,700/mo + $1,900/mo
- Spending
- $5,800/mo
- Health cover before Medicare
- $1,200/mo
What they’re asking
We think we are fine. Are we?
How much of this did you just make up?
Their arithmetic works. The money lasts. And their report still declines to tell them they are fine — because they answered about half of what it asked. No date on the balances, so we know what they typed but not what month it was true. No Social Security statement, so the benefit figures are recalled rather than read. Pension never answered at all, which is not the same as answering no. Every headline they get is stamped Provisional, with the specific missing document named beside it, and the claiming comparison is withheld outright. Any other calculator would have given them a number and let them believe it.
The report works through these in its own order. Every one of them is answered — the answers are gathered at the end.
Run the numbers.
The full report is below, computed in your browser from exactly the figures above. Nothing is withheld and nothing is a screenshot — the controls in it work, and moving one re-runs the whole projection.
They never gave a statement date for their balances. So we know what they typed; we do not know what month it was true. That is the difference between a fact and a figure, and the report keeps them apart.
The claiming comparison is Unavailable, not Provisional. They never said which month they intend to claim, and a claiming comparison without it would be arithmetic pretending to be an answer.
The gap ledger. Ten items, each with the question that closes it. This is the page that turns a caveat into a to-do list.
You now know enough to know who to call
Nobody yet — and that is the point
“Answer the ten questions on this page first, then decide whether you need anyone at all.”
Most of what is missing here is not expertise. It is paperwork they already own: two Social Security statements, a balance date, and a straight answer on whether either of them has a pension.
Their questions, answered
What the report told them
Every figure below comes from the report above — nothing here is worked out separately, and each answer links to the stop that shows how it was reached.
“We think we are fine. Are we?”
The arithmetic says the money lasts. The report will not tell you that you are fine. Those are not the same sentence, and the difference is the point. On a steady return your savings reach 100; under the stress test 137 of 300 paths do, 46%. But three of your headline results are marked Provisional and three are withheld altogether, because about half of what we asked went unanswered. A number resting on half the evidence is not a finding, and this report will not dress one up as one.
“How much of this did you just make up?”
None of it — but four figures here are ours rather than yours, and the ledger names all ten gaps. You gave balances with no date, so we know what you typed and not what month it was true. Social Security figures with no statement behind them, so they are recalled rather than read. No answer on a pension at all, which is not the same as answering no. No intended claiming month, which is why the claiming comparison is withheld instead of estimated. Every one of those is a document you already own.
What we could not tell them
Whether they are fine. They probably are. But "probably" built on half the evidence is not a finding, and a calculator that says it anyway is the reason people stop trusting calculators.
Your turn
Their arithmetic worked and the report still would not confirm it. Find out which of your own answers are still missing.
Build your own model
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Or read another household. Each one reaches a different limit.
- Can we both stop working at the same time?The modal household. Two salaries, no pension, Social Security doing most of the work.
- Can I retire at 62, three years before Medicare?Three years to Medicare, and a subsidy cliff that arrives a year after the decision that caused it.
- What happens to me if he goes first?A pension election made seven years ago, still deciding the shape of the plan.
- Can I stay in the house on a survivor benefit?Two of her three questions have answers. The third has a phone number.
- How long will my savings actually last?The model will not flatter him, and no single change fixes it.