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RETIREOMICSretirement decision model
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Worked example · computed live · published rules

What happens to me if he goes first?

Watch the model follow a pension election made seven years ago all the way through to what it means for Dee.

His pension, before and after

$3,400/mo

While Ray is alive

$1,700/mo

Continuing to Dee

Ray ticked 50% to protect Dee, and neither of them has ever been able to tell whether it was enough. It cannot be changed now. What can be settled is what it is worth — had he taken the higher single-life payment instead, Dee’s figure here would be zero.

Before and after

The largest decision in a retirement plan is often not an investment decision, and often was not recognised as a decision at the time. It was a box on a form, ticked in a week full of forms, years before anyone would feel it. Ray’s is worth more to Dee than every contribution and every rate of return in this plan put together. A calculator that starts from the portfolio will never show her that — it treats the pension as a given and models the part that moves. This one reads the plan terms first, then asks what is left for the portfolio to decide.

Dee & Ray Okonkwo

58 and 62, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Dee is 58 and still working in Colorado Springs. Ray is 62, retired from the Army, and has been drawing a pension with a cost-of-living adjustment since he was 55. Between them they have $150,000 saved — which is less than it sounds, because the pension is doing the work a portfolio would otherwise do.

What they have

Taxable
$25,000
Tax-deferred
$105,000
Tax Advantage (Roth)
$20,000
Social Security at 67
$2,100/mo + $2,600/mo
Pension
$3,400/mo, 50% survivor
Still working
$54,000
Spending
$5,400/mo
Health cover before Medicare
$1,050/mo

What they’re asking

Ray picked the 50% survivor option seven years ago. Was that the right call?

Does Colorado tax military retirement? We've been told both.

What actually happens to me if Ray goes first?

Because the largest number in their plan was decided seven years ago, by a form Ray filled in when he retired. Households like theirs are usually modelled as though the investing decisions matter most. Here they do not come close.

The report works through these in its own order. Every one of them is answered — the answers are gathered at the end.

Run the numbers.

The full report is below, computed in your browser from exactly the figures above. Nothing is withheld and nothing is a screenshot — the controls in it work, and moving one re-runs the whole projection.

3 · Timing

Three unrelated rules land on Ray’s 65th birthday. Colorado’s military pension exemption rises from $20,000 to $24,000, Medicare starts, and the pre-Medicare premium stops. None of the three knows the other two exist.

5 · Uncertainty

Then the survivor view. Ray’s pension halves, because he elected 50% continuation. Dee also loses the smaller of their two Social Security cheques — that is automatic, and the pension election cannot protect her from it.

5 · Uncertainty

Household income falls by more than half. Household spending does not. That gap is the single most consequential number on their report, and it was set by a form, not by a portfolio.

You now know enough to know who to call

A CFP who handles military benefits

“Given the gap this shows, what is the cheapest way to close it — and does SBP still make sense alongside what we already hold?”

The election is irrevocable and it interacts with life insurance and with Dee’s own benefit. We can show you the size of the gap. We cannot price the ways to close it.

← All sample households
SAMPLE HOUSEHOLD · CALCULATED IN YOUR BROWSER
A print copy of everything below.
Your result in one sentenceProvisional · rests on 4 open inputs or assumptions
What the four states mean

How to read this report

Each result carries one of four states — a statement about the evidence behind the number, never a judgement about your finances.

Complete
Everything it needs was entered and is current.
Provisional
Calculable, but resting on a named estimate or gap.
Unavailable
Withheld on purpose — guessing would look trustworthy and be wrong.
Not applicable
Checked, and it does not apply to you.

A blank field is never read as a zero. If you never told us about a pension, this report says so.

This projection reaches age 100 with $587,545 still in savings.

Nothing in the model runs out inside the years you asked about. What follows is where that figure comes from, and what it rests on.

Arrives each month

$6,000

Social Security, pension

You plan to spend

$6,400

$3,900 essentials + $1,500 extras

Comes from savings

$390

$4,623 a year, 3.1% of entered savings

ScenarioTwo-person retirement planSample household · illustrative figures
Born1968 + 1964
Retire2032
Starting savings$150,000
Monthly spending$5,400
View throughAge 100
01

Where the money comes from

On the date you chose, what arrives and what do you plan to spend?

$0$1,884$3,767$5,651$7,535+$2,600Social Security+$3,400Pension$6,385$385Planned spendingeach month
  • Social Security
  • Pension
  • From savings

Read this as

About $6,000 arrives each month against $6,400 you plan to spend. The $390 difference comes out of savings.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingThe three figures in full, the formula, and what is deliberately left out of this headline
Where you stand

Cash flow on March 31, 2032

Your chosen spending for the year$76,623
Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Social Security$31,200/yrIn payment at this date
Pension$40,800/yrConfirmed by you
Other regular incomeNone enteredRental, part-time work, annuities
How this number was worked outThe rule, the published source, and the arithmetic — line by line

This figure uses no investment return and no inflation forecast. It is arithmetic on the amounts you entered, at the date you chose, in today's dollars.

How to read the bar: Blue shows income meeting part of the year's spending. Orange shows the amount drawn from savings. When income is $0, the bar is entirely orange.

income arriving at March 31, 2032
  Social Security                 $31,200
  pension                         $40,800
  other regular income            $0
                                  ------------
                                  $72,000

spending chosen for that year     $76,623

position = $72,000 - $76,623 = -$4,623 drawn from savings

What is not in here: tax on the withdrawal and the health premium are modelled elsewhere in the projection but are not netted into this headline. This page answers what arrives against what you plan to spend, and nothing more.

02

How long the savings last

How far do the savings you entered reach?

Savings hold through age 100, with $587,545 left

Age, from the first year of retirement

Read this as

You entered $150,000. At this pace it is still there at 100, with $587,545 left. The first year draws $4,623, 3.1% of it.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingThe first-year draw two ways, the balances it is measured against, and the main inputs behind it

How much of your savings does your first year of spending use?

The same first-year draw, compared two ways

The model shows $4,623 coming from savings in the first year — 3.1% of the $150,000 you entered.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

The same first-year draw, compared with the savings you entered and the balance the model calculates for this report.
Compared withSavings balanceFirst-year drawSource
Savings you enteredWhat you told us you have$150,0003.1%Your input
Balance the model calculatesAfter monthly saving, growth, and withdrawals to this point$242,3531.9%Model calculation

About the second row. The model calculates that balance after applying monthly saving, growth, and withdrawals to this point. It depends on the assumptions you entered, including the 8% annual return.

Essential spending$46,800/yrStill has to be paid in a difficult year
Discretionary spending$18,000/yrThe part you could choose to cut back
Income against essentials alone154%Before touching savings
What shapes this scenarioThe main inputs behind your resultThese are the main inputs used to build this scenario. Each row explains how the model uses that input and shows one related result. The table does not rank the inputs or say which one matters most.
Monthly spending$5,400/mo
Model treatment

Base input is $5,400/mo; first-retirement modeled cost is about $6,385/mo after modeled additions.

Result signal

$385/mo is the first-year portfolio need before both claimed benefits begin.

Starting savings$150,000
Model treatment

Provides the initial funding base across taxable, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) accounts.

Result signal

$587,545 remains at the selected horizon in this path.

Social Security$2,100 + $2,600/mo at stated ages
Model treatment

Adds household income when each person claims.

Result signal

Household Social Security modeled at $4,700/mo once both benefits are in payment; this can differ from the entered reference amounts.

Retirement timing2032
Model treatment

Sets the end of saving and the start of portfolio-funded spending.

Result signal

Funded through age 100 at the selected timeline.

Market assumptions8% retirement accounts; 3% taxable/cash
Model treatment

Retirement accounts and taxable/cash balances use separate growth assumptions; volatility affects the range test.

Result signal

12% volatility is used for the 300-path market stress test.

Inflation and tax2.5% inflation; CO tax treatment
Model treatment

Future costs are reported in today’s dollars; modeled tax and IRMAA are added to spending where applicable.

Result signal

The tax result is a planning estimate, not a tax-return calculation.

Health costs$1,050/mo before Medicare; Medicare on
Model treatment

Health insurance, Medicare Part B, and applicable IRMAA can be added to modeled expense.

Result signal

Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included.

Pre-retirement saving$54,000/yr salary + $0/yr spouse
Model treatment

Salary-driven contributions continue until the retirement year; pre-retirement living costs and income tax are not modeled.

Result signal

Contributions use 9% / 10% employee saving plus employer match where entered.

03

Your timeline

When does anything actually change?

20262028203020322034203620382040204220442046Tax-deferred withdrawals beginYoustill workingYour work income stops · 64Medicare age · 65Benefit rises to $4,700/mo · 67Required withdrawals begin · 75Horizon · 100SpouseSocial Security begins · $2,600/mo · 682068
  • Your choice
  • Automatic at that age
  • Happens to the whole plan
  • Health cover paid out of pocket · 1 year before Medicare
  • Axis breaks after 2047: nothing changes between there and the horizon
Retirement cash flow

How spending is funded

Monthly spending is covered by modeled income first, then by the account sources shown in the legend.

Showing: Today's $. Shown in today's dollars. Every year is measured at today's buying power, so each figure compares directly with your budget now. Inflation is already allowed for: a level amount is one that keeps pace with prices, not one that never rises.

Read this as

6 dated changes in income or cost between retirement and age 100. The first, in 2032: your work income stops.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingEvery dated change in income or cost, why it happens, and what health cover costs year by year
  • 2032 · you are 64, your spouse 68 · your choice

    Your work income stops. Withdrawals begin.

    From here $72,000 a year of income and $4,623 a year from your savings cover $76,623 of spending.

  • 2032 · you are 64, your spouse 68 · your choice

    Social Security begins — $2,600 a month.

    The largest single change to what has to come out of savings.

  • 2033 · you are 65, your spouse 69 · automatic

    You reach Medicare age.

    The $1,050/mo pre-Medicare premium ends for you, and the Part B premium plus any income-related surcharge begins.

  • 2035 · you are 67, your spouse 71 · your choice

    Household benefit rises to $4,700 a month.

    The second benefit starts. The years before this point are the stretch your savings have to cover.

  • 2043 · you are 75, your spouse 79 · automatic

    Withdrawals start coming from tax-deferred savings.

    Taxable and cash accounts are close to exhausted. Money drawn from here is taxed as ordinary income.

  • 2043 · you are 75, your spouse 79 · automatic

    Required minimum distributions begin.

    Born in 1968, your applicable age is 75 under current rules. A minimum amount must come out of tax-deferred accounts each year whether or not you need it.

Supporting: health coverage timelineWhat cover costs, year by year, and where the figure came from
What your healthcare actually costsProvisional

After 65 the model covers the Part B premium and income-related surcharges only. Part D, Medigap or Advantage, dental, vision and hearing sit outside these figures.

04

What changes the picture

Which single changes move this, and by how much?

What moves the answer mostOne change at a time, by size of effectEach row re-runs the whole model with a single input changed and nothing else touched. Ordering describes size, not preference: none of these is recommended.
  • Spending $500/mo less

    +$218,079 at age 100

    64100

    Monthly living expense $5,400 → $4,900

  • Saving $500/mo more

    +$140,372 at age 100

    64100

    Contribution 9.0% → 20.1% of salary

  • Retiring 2 years later

    +$45,908 at age 100

    64100

    Retirement year 2032 → 2034 (age 66)

  • Your plan as entered
  • With this one change
  • Each re-runs the model with one input moved and everything else held. Modeled outcomes, not recommendations.

Why a row can be negative: these are measured by the balance left at age 100. Deferring Social Security pays nothing during the deferred years, so the model covers that spending from savings instead, and those withdrawals stop compounding at the 8.0% growth rate entered. The larger benefit that follows narrows the gap but does not always close it by age 100 at that growth rate. Ending balance is one measure: a deferred benefit is also inflation-adjusted income for life, which this column does not price.

Read this as

Each card re-runs the whole model with one entry moved and everything else held exactly as you entered it. None of them is a recommendation. Stop 5 lets you move any of them yourself.

Complete

You selected both cases yourself, and both were run through the same model with everything else held constant. This describes a difference — it does not say which to pick.

Show the workingThe comparison you chose, all nine claiming ages side by side, and the questions worth taking to a professional
The comparison you choseYour spouse's Social Security start age: Age 67 against Age 70Both cases run through the same model with everything else held constant. Neither is described here as better.
What changedYour planThe alternativeDifference
Your spouse's Social Security start ageAge 67Age 70—
Modelled balance at age 100$587,545$587,545+$0
Modelled paths funded to age 10095%95%+0 pts

Both columns rest on the same assumptions, so the difference between them is more reliable than either figure on its own.

Supporting: comparing claiming agesAll nine claiming ages from 62 to 70, run through the same model
Social Security context

What the claiming ages mean

General SSA reference for an own retirement benefit. Use your Social Security statement for the exact dollar amount; this is context, not a claiming recommendation.

YouFull retirement age: 67Scenario start age: 67
SpouseFull retirement age: 67Scenario start age: 67

For people born in 1960 or later, an own retirement benefit is about 70% at age 62, 100% at age 67, and 124% at age 70. Earlier birth years have a different full retirement age. Spousal and survivor benefits can follow different rules. Check your Social Security statement.

Retireomics is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.

Questions worth taking to a professional
  • Taxable savings run out before your tax-deferred money is touched. Is there a withdrawal sequence that handles that transition better than taxable, then tax-deferred, then Roth?
  • Long-term care is not in these numbers at all. What would it take to cover it, and is that a cost this plan could absorb?
05

Explore a different scenario

What happens if you change one of these yourself?

Move a control and the path redraws against your original

Interactive what-if

Explore a different scenario

Your original inputs stay unchanged.

Original scenario
Drag to explore a comfortable range, or enter an exact amount. Results update immediately as a valid value changes. You entered this as a split, so the change is taken off what you called discretionary first: this view is $3,900 essential plus $1,500 discretionary.
$/ mo
Unchanged
Age 64 gives the highest ending balance in this comparison. That is a model result, not an automatic recommendation — claiming earlier buys years of income you can spend. Select it to load that age.
Unchanged
Age 69 gives the highest ending balance for your spouse in this comparison. That is a model result, not an automatic recommendation. Select it to load that age.
Unchanged
Changes the age shown in this comparison. The engine's long-life stress test still runs through age 100; this does not predict how long anyone will live.
Unchanged
Funded through age 100
Assets at 100$587,545
ChangeNo change
Original at 100$587,545
If one of you dies first

From your spouse's modeled death at age 78, household Social Security becomes the higher of your own benefit or a survivor benefit from your spouse's record. Here the survivor benefit from your spouse's claim at 67 ($2,600/mo) is larger than your own benefit ($2,100/mo), so your spouse's claiming age carries into household income after the death, not only while both are alive.

06

How sure we are

What could weaken all of this?

In 95 of every 100 modelled market histories, savings were still there at 100. In 5 they were not.

  • Still there at 100
  • Ran out before 100

Each dot stands for one in a hundred of the modelled paths, not for a year or a person. These are modelled outcomes under the entered return and volatility, not a forecast or a likelihood of your actual result.

Read this as

95 of every 100 modelled market histories still had savings at 100. Only the order the returns arrive in varies between them; every other assumption on this page is held.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingThe risk you chose to look through, every open entry, and the stress test with the range of balances over time

4 figures in this report are estimates, defaults, or blanks rather than something you told us. 1 of them could move the picture materially.

You told us one of you dying first worries you most

That is an important question, and this model can only cover part of it. What follows is what Retireomics does and does not cover.

The ones that could move the picture.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
Pre-Medicare health coverEntered fact$1,050/moA quoted premium. After 65 the model still covers Part B and surcharges only.
Long-term careEntered factDeliberately excludedNot modelled at all. For a household planning into their nineties, this is the largest single cost that could arrive and has no place in these numbers.
Tax-deferred and Roth growth rateYour assumption8% a year, 12% volatilityYou set this yourself. Every balance after the target date depends on it.
The rest of the ledger.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
PensionEntered factConfirmed: none—
Dates on account balancesEntered factJanuary 31, 2026—
Exact dates of birth and claimEntered factNovember 21, 1968—
Essential vs discretionary spendingYour assumption$3,900 + $1,500/mo—
Taxable account cost basisYour assumption100%—
DebtEntered factConfirmed: none—
Survivor positionYour assumptionModelled from age 78—
Testing the plan against market ups and downsHow much could the result vary?Stress test: 300 different return scenarios, not 300 predictions of your future.
Weaker 10%Funded through age 100
MedianFunded through age 100
Stronger 10%Funded through age 100

95% of modeled return paths stay funded through age 100. The model ran 300 paths using the entered 8% return and 12% volatility assumptions. These paths show how outcomes vary; they are not forecasts or probabilities about one specific future.

Balance range over timeP10–P90 modeled balance rangeThe shaded band contains the weaker-to-stronger 80% range; the line is the median path.
Order of returnsThe same returns, in two different ordersOne set of 43 yearly returns, averaging 6.6%, run best-first and then worst-first. Nothing else changes between the two columns.
Good years firstFunded through age 100$1,315,641 at age 100
Bad years firstDepletes at 90$0 at age 100

$1,315,641 separates the two at age 100, from ordering alone. The two paths begin to diverge at age 58. Poor returns early in retirement are withdrawn against a smaller balance, which the same returns arriving later do not do. This is one illustration, not a prediction.

Read the chart as a range of modeled account balances, not as a probability forecast. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile paths use the same seeded 300-path stress test summarized above.

View balance-range dataEvery fifth age, with the weaker, median and stronger paths side by side
AgeWeaker 10%MedianStronger 10%
58$150,000$150,000$150,000
60$150,186$178,294$205,361
65$173,482$237,315$339,018
70$265,767$383,566$557,169
75$365,921$528,129$781,740
80$318,342$534,401$936,567
85$266,250$531,548$999,878
90$212,110$524,818$1,062,903
95$168,557$510,242$1,225,582
100$112,709$489,310$1,288,397

Read that result carefully. A funded-paths figure is a property of the assumptions, not evidence that a plan is safe. Every one of those runs began from a 8% average return, every one included your other income arriving without fail, and none of them included long-term care, Part D, Medigap, or a cost basis different from the one entered. The test varies one thing — the order market returns arrive in — and holds every other uncertainty on this page fixed.

07

What would sharpen this

Which entries is this result still resting on?

What would sharpen this

One figure would sharpen this picture

Everything above rests on what you entered. These are the entries the model had to estimate or was never given. None of them is a criticism, and each one moves the result.

3 further entries are open but would move the picture less. All of them are listed in the ledger below.

  • Your assumption · Tax-deferred and Roth growth rate

    8% a year, 12% volatility

    You set this yourself. Every balance after the target date depends on it.

    Where to get itYour own account statements: the annualised return over the last five to ten years, and the volatility stated on the fund fact sheets.

08

How taxes and Medicare costs change over time

What does the plan pay in tax and Medicare surcharges each year, and why does that move?

Taxes and Medicare surcharges

What tax and surcharges cost each month, by age

Federal tax, capital gains tax, state tax and the Medicare income-related surcharge (IRMAA) in the selected projection, as monthly amounts.

Showing: Today's $. Shown in today's dollars. Every year is measured at today's buying power, so each figure compares directly with your budget now. Inflation is already allowed for: a level amount is one that keeps pace with prices, not one that never rises.

Why the chart has this shape
  • Required minimum distributions from tax-deferred accounts begin at age 75 for someone born in 1968. From then on the model withdraws at least the required amount each year, and that withdrawal is taxed as ordinary income whether or not the spending needs it.

Tax and surcharge figures are planning estimates, not filing calculations. Uses selected public IRS/SSA/CMS source material; Retireomics is not affiliated with or endorsed by any government agency.

Inspect the numbers

Every input, rule and simplification

Open any of these to check the working. Nothing in this report is hidden behind a score, and nothing here is a recommendation.

Your inputsEverything you entered, and the plan it describes

Retirement 2032; spending $5,400/mo; savings $150,000; Social Security ages 67/67.

How the result is builtThe order the model spends from, and what it does before retirement

Starting savings are split across taxable/cash $25,000, tax-deferred $105,000, and Tax Advantage (Roth) $20,000. Contributions continue until retirement when salary is entered; retirement spending is funded by modeled income first, then taxable/cash, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) balances.

Model rulesThe rules applied to this household, and the dollars everything is shown in

Projection through age 100 in this view; the engine stress test still runs through age 100; today's dollars; 300 Monte Carlo trials; account-specific withdrawal and tax treatment.

Not modeled, or simplifiedWhere the model stops, in its own words

Pre-retirement spending and income tax are not modeled. Medicare includes Part B and applicable IRMAA only; Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included. Tax, Social Security, and health estimates should be verified against your own documents.

Calculation traceEvery step from your entries to the figures above, with input, operation and result
  1. 1. Starting balance $150,000 total: $25,000 taxable/cash + $105,000 tax-deferred + $20,000 Tax Advantage (Roth) $150,000 enters the projection
  2. 2. Timeline Retirement year 2032: The model starts retirement withdrawals at age 64 and runs through age 100. Selected projection uses claim age 67 and spouse age 67
  3. 3. Income and cost First retired year 2032: $5,400/mo base spending + $985/mo modeled additions; income offsets the cost first. $6,000/mo modeled income; $6,385/mo total expense
  4. 4. Portfolio funding First retired year 2032: After modeled income, withdrawals use taxable/cash, then tax-deferred, then Tax Advantage (Roth); any remaining need is recorded as shortfall. $385/mo withdrawn; $0/mo shortfall
  5. 5. Selected endpoint Fixed 8.0% annual return path: Monthly balances, taxes, inflation, Medicare/IRMAA, and entered income rules are applied through age 100. $587,545 at age 100
  6. 6. Range test 300 seeded return paths: Each path varies annual returns around 8.0% using 12.0% volatility; the seed keeps the screen and PDF reproducible. 286 of 300 paths funded through age 100 (95%)

Their questions, answered

What the report told them

Every figure below comes from the report above — nothing here is worked out separately, and each answer links to the stop that shows how it was reached.

“Ray picked the 50% survivor option seven years ago. Was that the right call?”

This report will not tell you whether it was right, and no model should — that is a judgement about two lives, not a calculation. What it can tell you is what the election is worth. Ray’s $3,400 pension continues to Dee at $1,700 a month for the rest of her life, cost-of-living increases intact. Had he taken the higher single-life payment instead, that line would be zero. Every figure in this report assumes the 50% he chose.

5 · Uncertainty

“Does Colorado tax military retirement? We've been told both.”

Partly — which is why you have been told both. Colorado exempts $24,000 a year of military retirement from age 65, and $20,000 before that, then taxes the rest at 4.4%. Ray’s pension is $40,800 a year, so tax falls on $16,800 of it: about $62 a month. Without the exemption it would be nearer $150. The exemption steps up on his 65th birthday, the same year his Medicare begins.

2 · Capacity3 · Timing

“What actually happens to me if Ray goes first?”

Household income falls from $8,100 a month to $4,300. The pension halves to $1,700, and Dee keeps the larger of the two Social Security benefits rather than both. Spending falls too, but only from about $6,150 to $5,950 — roughly 3%. Income down 47%, outgoings down 3%: that gap is the whole of the survivor question. The plan still holds, with 290 of 300 paths reaching 100, because a cost-of-living pension is doing the heavy lifting. Delaying Ray’s own claim to 70 would raise the benefit Dee inherits, which is the comparison set out on the Choices page.

5 · Uncertainty4 · Choices

What we could not tell them

Whether 50% was the right election at the time. That question is closed — it cannot be changed now — so the useful version is what to do about the gap it leaves, which is a conversation with a person.

Your turn

The biggest number in their plan was set by a form, not a portfolio. Find out what your own plan terms are quietly deciding.

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