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RETIREOMICSretirement decision model
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Worked example · computed live · published rules

How long will my savings actually last?

Watch the model lay out Alan’s position honestly, and show what is still his to change.

His savings, from today

Runs out at 81

Alan has already retired and already claimed, so the largest choices are behind him. This is a projection from his figures under stated assumptions, not a verdict on him. Of the four changes the model can test, one is still open — it buys about ten years and does not reach the end.

Projected

A calculator that can only produce reassuring answers is not telling you anything, because you already know what it is going to say. Alan’s report says the money runs out, and says when. Then it does the harder thing: the panel of changes he could make has one row in it, not four, because three of the four are no longer his to pull. Most tools would have shown all four and let him imagine himself back into decisions he made years ago. This report shows what is actually his, and then stops — because what to do next is a conversation with a person, not another projection.

Alan Reyes

66, Dayton, Ohio

Alan is 66, single, retired, in Dayton. He already receives $2,150 a month from Social Security and has $335,000 left across three accounts.

What they have

Taxable
$40,000
Tax-deferred
$275,000
Tax Advantage (Roth)
$20,000
Social Security
$2,150/mo, claimed
Spending
$4,200/mo
Debt
$420/mo to 2031

What they’re asking

How long does this actually last?

Should I sell the house?

Is it too late to fix this?

Because a model that only ever produces reassuring answers is not a model. His report says the money runs out, it says when, and it does not soften it — and then it is honest about how little can still be changed from here.

The report works through these in its own order. Every one of them is answered — the answers are gathered at the end.

Run the numbers.

The full report is below, computed in your browser from exactly the figures above. Nothing is withheld and nothing is a screenshot — the controls in it work, and moving one re-runs the whole projection.

2 · Capacity

The projection shows his accounts depleting at 81. Stated as what it is — a projection from these figures under stated assumptions — not as a verdict about him.

4 · Choices

The "if you changed one thing" panel has one row, not four. He has already retired and already claimed, so three of the four changes we can model are no longer available to him. We would rather show one honest row than four that are not choices.

4 · Choices

That one row buys him about ten years and still does not reach the end. This is where a model should stop and a person should start.

2 · Capacity

A small thing worth seeing: Ohio charges a flat $332 once income passes $26,050, on top of the rate above it. On his income that step is plainly visible. On a large household it would vanish into the noise.

You now know enough to know who to call

A CFP, or a HUD-approved housing counselor — those are genuinely free

“What do the options outside this model do to this picture — downsizing, a reverse mortgage, state assistance?”

None of them are in this model. All three could change his answer materially, and two of them are decisions we would have no business modelling for him.

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SAMPLE HOUSEHOLD · CALCULATED IN YOUR BROWSER
A print copy of everything below.
Your result in one sentenceProvisional · rests on 3 open inputs or assumptions
What the four states mean

How to read this report

Each result carries one of four states — a statement about the evidence behind the number, never a judgement about your finances.

Complete
Everything it needs was entered and is current.
Provisional
Calculable, but resting on a named estimate or gap.
Unavailable
Withheld on purpose — guessing would look trustworthy and be wrong.
Not applicable
Checked, and it does not apply to you.

A blank field is never read as a zero. If you never told us about a pension, this report says so.

At this pace, savings last until you are 81. You asked to plan to 100.

That is a 19-year gap, not a cliff. The choices further down each move it, and the report shows by how much.

Arrives each month

$2,150

Social Security

You plan to spend

$4,800

$3,300 essentials + $900 extras

Comes from savings

$2,650

$32,075 a year, 9.6% of entered savings

ScenarioSingle-person retirement planSample household · illustrative figures
Born1960
Retire2025
Starting savings$335,000
Monthly spending$4,200
View throughAge 100
01

Where the money comes from

On the date you chose, what arrives and what do you plan to spend?

$0$1,423$2,846$4,268$5,691+$2,150Social Security$4,823$2,673Planned spendingeach month
  • Social Security
  • From savings

Read this as

About $2,150 arrives each month against $4,800 you plan to spend. The $2,650 difference comes out of savings.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingThe three figures in full, the formula, and what is deliberately left out of this headline
Where you stand

Cash flow on August 31, 2026

Your chosen spending for the year$57,875
Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Social Security$25,800/yrIn payment at this date
PensionNoneConfirmed by you
Other regular incomeNone enteredRental, part-time work, annuities
How this number was worked outThe rule, the published source, and the arithmetic — line by line

This figure uses no investment return and no inflation forecast. It is arithmetic on the amounts you entered, at the date you chose, in today's dollars.

How to read the bar: Blue shows income meeting part of the year's spending. Orange shows the amount drawn from savings. When income is $0, the bar is entirely orange.

income arriving at August 31, 2026
  Social Security                 $25,800
  pension                         $0
  other regular income            $0
                                  ------------
                                  $25,800

spending chosen for that year     $57,875

position = $25,800 - $57,875 = -$32,075 drawn from savings

What is not in here: tax on the withdrawal and the health premium are modelled elsewhere in the projection but are not netted into this headline. This page answers what arrives against what you plan to spend, and nothing more.

02

How long the savings last

How far do the savings you entered reach?

Savings run out during age 81

Age, from the first year of retirement

Read this as

You entered $335,000. At this pace it runs out during age 81, 19 years before the 100 you asked for. The first year draws $32,075, 9.6% of it.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingThe first-year draw two ways, the balances it is measured against, and the main inputs behind it

How much of your savings does your first year of spending use?

The same first-year draw, compared two ways

The model shows $32,075 coming from savings in the first year — 9.6% of the $335,000 you entered.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

The same first-year draw, compared with the savings you entered and the balance the model calculates for this report.
Compared withSavings balanceFirst-year drawSource
Savings you enteredWhat you told us you have$335,0009.6%Your input
Balance the model calculatesThe same balance at this point in the model$335,0009.6%Model calculation

Both rows show $335,000 because the model calculates the same balance at both comparison points. The second value is calculated, not copied from your input.

Why the numbers match. The model found the same balance at both comparison points, so the first-year draw is the same percentage of each.

Essential spending$39,600/yrStill has to be paid in a difficult year
Discretionary spending$10,800/yrThe part you could choose to cut back
Income against essentials alone65%Before touching savings
What shapes this scenarioThe main inputs behind your resultThese are the main inputs used to build this scenario. Each row explains how the model uses that input and shows one related result. The table does not rank the inputs or say which one matters most.
Monthly spending$4,200/mo
Model treatment

Base input is $4,200/mo; first-retirement modeled cost is about $4,823/mo after modeled additions.

Result signal

$2,673/mo is the first-year portfolio need before both claimed benefits begin.

Starting savings$335,000
Model treatment

Provides the initial funding base across taxable, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) accounts.

Result signal

$0 remains at the selected horizon in this path.

Social Security$0/mo at your stated age
Model treatment

Adds your modeled benefit when you claim.

Result signal

Social Security is modeled at $2,150/mo after your selected claiming age; this can differ from the entered reference amount.

Retirement timing2025
Model treatment

Sets the end of saving and the start of portfolio-funded spending.

Result signal

Depletes around age 81 at the selected timeline.

Market assumptions8% retirement accounts; 3% taxable/cash
Model treatment

Retirement accounts and taxable/cash balances use separate growth assumptions; volatility affects the range test.

Result signal

12% volatility is used for the 300-path market stress test.

Inflation and tax2.5% inflation; OH tax treatment
Model treatment

Future costs are reported in today’s dollars; modeled tax and IRMAA are added to spending where applicable.

Result signal

The tax result is a planning estimate, not a tax-return calculation.

Health costs$0/mo before Medicare; Medicare on
Model treatment

Health insurance, Medicare Part B, and applicable IRMAA can be added to modeled expense.

Result signal

Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included.

03

Your timeline

When does anything actually change?

2026202820302032203420362038204020422044Work income stopsTax-deferred withdrawals beginSavings run out · 2041YouSocial Security begins · $2,150/mo · 66Required withdrawals begin · 75Horizon · 1002060
  • Your choice
  • Automatic at that age
  • Happens to the whole plan
  • Axis breaks after 2045: nothing changes between there and the horizon
Retirement cash flow

How spending is funded

Monthly spending is covered by modeled income first, then by the account sources shown in the legend.

Showing: Today's $. Shown in today's dollars. Every year is measured at today's buying power, so each figure compares directly with your budget now. Inflation is already allowed for: a level amount is one that keeps pace with prices, not one that never rises.

Read this as

4 dated changes in income or cost between retirement and age 100. The first, in 2026: work income stops.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingEvery dated change in income or cost, why it happens, and what health cover costs year by year

  • 2026 · you are 66 · your choice

    Work income stops. Withdrawals begin.

    From here $25,800 a year of income and $32,075 a year from your savings cover $57,875 of spending.

  • 2026 · you are 66 · your choice

    Social Security begins — $2,150 a month.

    The largest single change to what has to come out of savings.

  • 2027 · you are 67 · automatic

    Withdrawals start coming from tax-deferred savings.

    Taxable and cash accounts are close to exhausted. Money drawn from here is taxed as ordinary income.

  • 2035 · you are 75 · automatic

    Required minimum distributions begin.

    Born in 1960, your applicable age is 75 under current rules. A minimum amount must come out of tax-deferred accounts each year whether or not you need it.

Supporting: health coverage timelineWhat cover costs, year by year, and where the figure came from
What your healthcare actually costsProvisional

After 65 the model covers the Part B premium and income-related surcharges only. Part D, Medigap or Advantage, dental, vision and hearing sit outside these figures.

04

What changes the picture

Which single changes move this, and by how much?

What moves the answer mostOne change at a time, by size of effectEach row re-runs the whole model with a single input changed and nothing else touched. Ordering describes size, not preference: none of these is recommended.

  • Spending $500/mo less

    +11 years funded to 92

    66100

    Monthly living expense $4,200 → $3,700

  • Your plan as entered
  • With this one change
  • Each re-runs the model with one input moved and everything else held. Modeled outcomes, not recommendations.

Read this as

Each card re-runs the whole model with one entry moved and everything else held exactly as you entered it. None of them is a recommendation. Stop 5 lets you move any of them yourself.

Complete

You selected both cases yourself, and both were run through the same model with everything else held constant. This describes a difference — it does not say which to pick.

Show the workingThe comparison you chose, all nine claiming ages side by side, and the questions worth taking to a professional
The comparison you choseMonthly spending: $4,200/mo against $4,000/moBoth cases run through the same model with everything else held constant. Neither is described here as better.
What changedYour planThe alternativeDifference
Monthly spending$4,200/mo$4,000/mo—
Modelled balance at age 100$0$0+$0
Modelled paths funded to age 1003%7%+4 pts

Both columns rest on the same assumptions, so the difference between them is more reliable than either figure on its own.

Supporting: comparing claiming agesAll nine claiming ages from 62 to 70, run through the same model
What your benefits are worth at different claiming agesNot applicable

Benefits are already in payment, so there is no claiming decision left to compare.

Questions worth taking to a professional
  • Taxable savings run out before your tax-deferred money is touched. Is there a withdrawal sequence that handles that transition better than taxable, then tax-deferred, then Roth?
  • You have $275,000 in tax-deferred savings and a stretch before required distributions begin. Does a Roth conversion belong in the conversation?
  • Long-term care is not in these numbers at all. What would it take to cover it, and is that a cost this plan could absorb?
05

Explore a different scenario

What happens if you change one of these yourself?

Move a control and the path redraws against your original

Interactive what-if

Explore a different scenario

Your original inputs stay unchanged.

Original scenario
Drag to explore a comfortable range, or enter an exact amount. Results update immediately as a valid value changes. You entered this as a split, so the change is taken off what you called discretionary first: this view is $3,300 essential plus $900 discretionary.
$/ mo
Unchanged
Your SS start ageHidden because you are already receiving Social Security. There is no remaining claiming-age decision to explore.
Changes the age shown in this comparison. The engine's long-life stress test still runs through age 100; this does not predict how long anyone will live.
Unchanged
Depletes around age 81
Assets at 100$0
ChangeNo change
Original at 100$0
06

How sure we are

What could weaken all of this?

In 3 of every 100 modelled market histories, savings were still there at 100. In 97 they were not.

  • Still there at 100
  • Ran out before 100

Each dot stands for one in a hundred of the modelled paths, not for a year or a person. These are modelled outcomes under the entered return and volatility, not a forecast or a likelihood of your actual result.

Read this as

3 of every 100 modelled market histories still had savings at 100. Only the order the returns arrive in varies between them; every other assumption on this page is held.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Show the workingThe risk you chose to look through, every open entry, and the stress test with the range of balances over time

3 figures in this report are estimates, defaults, or blanks rather than something you told us. 1 of them could move the picture materially.

You told us living longer worries you most

The funded-paths figures below are measured at a fixed age. Moving that age is the single clearest way to see what another decade would ask of this plan.

The ones that could move the picture.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
Pre-Medicare health coverEntered factNot enteredA quoted premium. After 65 the model still covers Part B and surcharges only.
Long-term careEntered factDeliberately excludedNot modelled at all. For a household planning into their nineties, this is the largest single cost that could arrive and has no place in these numbers.
Tax-deferred and Roth growth rateYour assumption8% a year, 12% volatilityYou set this yourself. Every balance after the target date depends on it.
The rest of the ledger.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
PensionEntered factConfirmed: none—
Dates on account balancesEntered factJanuary 31, 2026—
Exact dates of birth and claimEntered factFebruary 11, 1960—
Essential vs discretionary spendingYour assumption$3,300 + $900/mo—
Taxable account cost basisYour assumption100%—
DebtEntered fact$420/mo to 2031—
Testing the plan against market ups and downsHow much could the result vary?Stress test: 300 different return scenarios, not 300 predictions of your future.
Weaker 10%Depletes around age 76
MedianDepletes around age 81
Stronger 10%Depletes around age 89

3% of modeled return paths stay funded through age 100. The model ran 300 paths using the entered 8% return and 12% volatility assumptions. These paths show how outcomes vary; they are not forecasts or probabilities about one specific future.

Balance range over timeP10–P90 modeled balance rangeThe shaded band contains the weaker-to-stronger 80% range; the line is the median path.
Order of returnsThe same returns, in two different ordersOne set of 35 yearly returns, averaging 6.3%, run best-first and then worst-first. Nothing else changes between the two columns.
Good years firstFunded through age 100$565,870 at age 100
Bad years firstDepletes at 71$0 at age 100

$565,870 separates the two at age 100, from ordering alone. The two paths begin to diverge at age 66. Poor returns early in retirement are withdrawn against a smaller balance, which the same returns arriving later do not do. This is one illustration, not a prediction.

Read the chart as a range of modeled account balances, not as a probability forecast. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile paths use the same seeded 300-path stress test summarized above.

View balance-range dataEvery fifth age, with the weaker, median and stronger paths side by side
AgeWeaker 10%MedianStronger 10%
66$335,000$335,000$335,000
70$174,715$261,148$359,490
75$37,769$143,171$329,997
80$0$15,209$220,905
85$0$0$106,790
90$0$0$0
95$0$0$0
100$0$0$0

Read that result carefully. A funded-paths figure is a property of the assumptions, not evidence that a plan is safe. Every one of those runs began from a 8% average return, every one included your other income arriving without fail, and none of them included long-term care, Part D, Medigap, or a cost basis different from the one entered. The test varies one thing — the order market returns arrive in — and holds every other uncertainty on this page fixed.

07

What would sharpen this

Which entries is this result still resting on?

What would sharpen this

One figure would sharpen this picture

Everything above rests on what you entered. These are the entries the model had to estimate or was never given. None of them is a criticism, and each one moves the result.

2 further entries are open but would move the picture less. All of them are listed in the ledger below.

  • Your assumption · Tax-deferred and Roth growth rate

    8% a year, 12% volatility

    You set this yourself. Every balance after the target date depends on it.

    Where to get itYour own account statements: the annualised return over the last five to ten years, and the volatility stated on the fund fact sheets.

08

How taxes and Medicare costs change over time

What does the plan pay in tax and Medicare surcharges each year, and why does that move?

Taxes and Medicare surcharges

What tax and surcharges cost each month, by age

Federal tax, capital gains tax, state tax and the Medicare income-related surcharge (IRMAA) in the selected projection, as monthly amounts.

Showing: Today's $. Shown in today's dollars. Every year is measured at today's buying power, so each figure compares directly with your budget now. Inflation is already allowed for: a level amount is one that keeps pace with prices, not one that never rises.

Why the chart has this shape
  • Required minimum distributions from tax-deferred accounts begin at age 75 for someone born in 1960. From then on the model withdraws at least the required amount each year, and that withdrawal is taxed as ordinary income whether or not the spending needs it.

Tax and surcharge figures are planning estimates, not filing calculations. Uses selected public IRS/SSA/CMS source material; Retireomics is not affiliated with or endorsed by any government agency.

Inspect the numbers

Every input, rule and simplification

Open any of these to check the working. Nothing in this report is hidden behind a score, and nothing here is a recommendation.

Your inputsEverything you entered, and the plan it describes

Retirement 2025; spending $4,200/mo; savings $335,000; Social Security ages 67/67.

How the result is builtThe order the model spends from, and what it does before retirement

Starting savings are split across taxable/cash $40,000, tax-deferred $275,000, and Tax Advantage (Roth) $20,000. Contributions continue until retirement when salary is entered; retirement spending is funded by modeled income first, then taxable/cash, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) balances.

Model rulesThe rules applied to this household, and the dollars everything is shown in

Projection through age 100 in this view; the engine stress test still runs through age 100; today's dollars; 300 Monte Carlo trials; account-specific withdrawal and tax treatment.

Not modeled, or simplifiedWhere the model stops, in its own words

Pre-retirement spending and income tax are not modeled. Medicare includes Part B and applicable IRMAA only; Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included. Tax, Social Security, and health estimates should be verified against your own documents.

Calculation traceEvery step from your entries to the figures above, with input, operation and result
  1. 1. Starting balance $335,000 total: $40,000 taxable/cash + $275,000 tax-deferred + $20,000 Tax Advantage (Roth) $335,000 enters the projection
  2. 2. Timeline Retirement year 2025: The model starts retirement withdrawals at age 65 and runs through age 100. Selected projection uses claim age 66
  3. 3. Income and cost First retired year 2026: $4,200/mo base spending + $623/mo modeled additions; income offsets the cost first. $2,150/mo modeled income; $4,823/mo total expense
  4. 4. Portfolio funding First retired year 2026: After modeled income, withdrawals use taxable/cash, then tax-deferred, then Tax Advantage (Roth); any remaining need is recorded as shortfall. $2,673/mo withdrawn; $0/mo shortfall
  5. 5. Selected endpoint Fixed 8.0% annual return path: Monthly balances, taxes, inflation, Medicare/IRMAA, and entered income rules are applied through age 100. Depletes around age 81
  6. 6. Range test 300 seeded return paths: Each path varies annual returns around 8.0% using 12.0% volatility; the seed keeps the screen and PDF reproducible. 9 of 300 paths funded through age 100 (3%)
Detailed tables, sources, methodology, and version information follow the explanation above.

Their questions, answered

What the report told them

Every figure below comes from the report above — nothing here is worked out separately, and each answer links to the stop that shows how it was reached.

“How long does this actually last?”

To 81, on a steady 8% return. The stress test is harsher: half the paths are gone by 80, and 9 of 300 reach 100. Your Social Security of $2,150 a month covers a little under half of what you spend, and the rest comes out of $335,000 that nothing is replacing.

2 · Capacity5 · Uncertainty

“Should I sell the house?”

This report cannot answer that, and it is the largest thing it does not hold. There is no property in this model — no equity, no sale, no downsizing, no reverse mortgage, and no rent you would pay instead. Every one of those changes the picture materially. A HUD-approved housing counsellor will work through the options with you at no charge, and that is a better first call than any calculator.

2 · Capacity

“Is it too late to fix this?”

Of the changes this model can test, one is still open to you. You have already retired and already claimed, so working longer and claiming later are not on the table — which is why that panel has a single row rather than four. Spending $500 a month less buys about ten more years and still does not reach 100. That is not the model declining to help. It is the honest shape of the position, and it is the point where the useful next step is a person rather than a projection.

4 · Choices

What we could not tell them

What to do. The report is clear about the position and clear about the levers, and then it stops — because everything still available to Alan is a decision about his life rather than his spreadsheet.

Your turn

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